Sunday, February 17, 2008

So I listened to Obama's Speech Last Night...

What a good speaker. I have listened to him before, but I really wanted to hear what he had to say as he prepares to close the door on Hilliary Clinton, who has run the only political campaign worse than Senator George Allen in the modern political era. Since Barack is the likely democratic nominee, I wanted to hear directly from him what he is all about rather than listening to what others say he is all about.

First and foremost, Senator Obama is about presence. He has it and he uses his presence well. It comes naturally and is as genuine as homemade apple pie. He does not hide who is nor does he obfuscate issues to stake out multiple positions to please the audience at hand, while leaving enough wiggle room to stake out an alternate position for another time (like Hillairy does) No, I think Obama is who he says he is. Not Unlike George Bush, I believe that Obama believes in himself and his convictions enough that he will not stray from them to score political points.(Unlike either of the Clintons) Also, like George W. Bush, I think that Senator Obama is comfortable in his skin, he is satisfied with himself. I think he wants to be president very badly, just like President Bush did eight years ago. However I think that like president Bush, Obama does not have to be president of the United States to feel that he has led a successful life, it will not be the center of his being, but rather Barack's center will be reflected in his presidency should he win this November, or a November hence. Like president Bush and unlike the Clintons, I think Barack Obama wants to be president because he honestly feels that he can do some good for the country with his leadership and his ideas. I agree with him on his ability to help the country with his leadership skills, it is his ideas on what he wants to do that scare the crap out of me.

I am not convinced that anyone should be president of the United States if they have never held a job for a substantial period of time in the private sector (10 years sounds about right, so they will have seen boom and bust cycles...and depending on your area of practice, being an attorney may or may not count). Obama is a prime example of why this prerequisite should be in place. It is clear from his plans that he has no clue how the American economic system works and the potentially disasterous role govenrment can play when it becomes too heavy handed. As seen by the disasterous effects of FDR's new deal which deepened and prolonged the US economic malaise, the economy does best when left to the forces of the market and free will.

If you listened to Obama carefully, it seems that every American is an out of work factory worker whose job has been exported to China. It seems that every American does not have health care, cannot read (maybe this is why they are out of work), and is about to lose their home because someone tricked them into buying a house they could not afford. I don't know anyone who fits that description, but it makes us all want to reach out and help these people...where ever they might be. Everyone according to Obama is a victim of circumstance. It never occured to a factory worker that they might need to upgrade their skills or that their union might be selling them down the river trying to get above market wages for jobs that have long since been commoditized. Apparently someone held a gun to the heads of every family involved in the "housing crisis" and made them sign mortgage agreements for half a million dollar loans with payments that started out at only $ 500 per month. It does not take an MBA to do the math that shines the light of day on that deal. Obama will fix all of these problems, with government programs from the infinite funds apparently available to the US government.

What Obama does not understand is that in order for government to have any money to spend (or give away), something productive needs to have happened first. Someone needs to have made something and sold it, or provided a service, or grew something that was sold on the open market. The US economy frankly has been too good at generating funds that end up in Washington, so good to the point that seemingly bright and reasonable people like Obama assume that there is a never ending source of funds through the tax system or through the credit markets that can provide for every government social mandate under the sun.

Obama wants universal healthcare for everyone. Great thought, how are going to pay for it? In a world of fee for service world of compeitive markets, everyone would have universal access to any healthcare they could afford, and at market prices rather than inflated managed market prices. Catastrophic coverage would be affordable and manageable for everyone. However, this is not what Senator Obama is thinking. He wants the same system that supports congress and federal workers rolled out to 300M americans. Okay, but what will my tax rate be when this program rolls out, in 4 years as he claims? If it is anything like Canada's system, get ready to figrue out how to live off of .30 of every dollar you earn. How many jobs will that kill? How many more will need to live off the government dime when meteoric rises in taxes kill our economy?

Obama says he is a free market capitalist which is true, expect for when he isn't. He wants to make sure that good jobs remain here in the United States, and that he will make sure that the incentives are there for high paying manufacturing jobs to be created on US soil. Well, that sounds great, but what is the cost? What if those jobs belong elsewhere? What if market equilibrium states that the product design, architecture, and management belong here, but the actual production is best suited for Brazil, China, or Mexico? Are consumers going to pay more for the products that are 100% US made versus a Korean alternative that is just as good, but much cheaper? Market economics of the past 30 years says "no". So how many jobs will that cost us? How many more will need government healthcare because their company went belly up trying to compete with truly global alternatives?

Obama says he wants the best education for all of the children in America (you know are are officially a politician when everything starts to boil down to "the children") Okay, that sounds great, how are you going to do that? Well, according to Obama, underperforming kids, needy kids today in the inner city, in rural america, and in ethnic neighborhoods are not "my problem" becuase they do not look like me. Well, not exactly. The kids aren't "my problem" rather they are their "parents responsibility" and parents who choose not to raise their kids in a safe and healthy environment, well those are the folks who are really "the problem" and that transcends race, religion, geography, ethnicity. So Obama wants to solve the "children problem" by rewarding teachers with pay inceases. He wants to especially reward the best teachers with big pay increases. Okay, that sounds fine. But what about the crummy teachers? How are we going to weed them out? Who is going to fire them? What about school choice? Why are kids in crappy schools doomed to stay there because teacher's unions and local school district employees want to keep their jobs and their district funding? If we really want better education for all kids (and I think we can agree that we all do) then let parents and students find the best schools (public, private, religious) and send them there. This is such an easy problem to solve, but the grip the teracher's union has on the democratic party reduce sincere smart people like Obama to spouting party-line drivel about teacher pay raises and "real accountability" (whatever that means) and throwing more money into a totally ineffective public school system without fixing the problem. Let kids go to good schools, and schools will get much better, and bad schools will go away which is the best thing that could ever happen to education in the United States.

Obama went on and on down similar paths. I truly beleive that Obama believes he is on the right path. I believe that he is a good, honorable, and decent man. I think he inspires many. I know it is anathema to the left but his belief and loyalty to his core is similar in many ways to George W Bush. I respect that in both men. However, please show me the details of how we get any of this done in the real world? How will we pay for all of the programs Obama wants to implement? How many jobs will be sucked from the private into the public sector? I wish I could talk some sense into Obama on these and other issues, but to his credit, this is who he is and what he believes. I would be disappointed if he moved off his worng headed positions.

BTW, I ddin't even meniton how off base Obama is on the war on terror and fundmentalist Islam, but these positions were so far off base, I really thought that adding this to the list would just be piling-on.

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