If climate change alarmists weren't a threat to economic prosperity and personal liberty they would be very entertaining and highly valued in tense times when we could all use some comic relief.
Active hurricane seasons are caused by global warming. Passive hurricane seasons apparently are also caused by global warming. Lots of snow, global warming. Absence of snow, you guessed it, global warming. Incongruous events of drought and flood are simultaneously the result of global warming and more global warming. Is there anything that is not a consequence of global warming? Red Sox finally break the curse of the Bambino...brought to you I assume by global warming.
When I opened today's RTD to see the front page adorned with an article connecting the tragic tornadoes in the midwest with global warming, I laughed not at the tragedy, but at the predictability of the conclusions drawn by climate change zealots. I knew this was coming, I was only surprised that it had taken this long to find its way into the media.
Apparently the only constant in our lives untouched by the reach of global warming is the perpetual futility of the Chicago Cubs pursuit of a world series championship. Happily something is more powerful than the reach of global warming, and if you have watched the Cubs play this year, I am sure you will agree.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Monday, May 16, 2011
Undeniable Truth About Tax Policy
Unfortunately, the presidential election season is in full swing a full 18 months before election day. If any season is going to start early and run longer than normal, I wish it were duck season, but I digress. Since the president has started giving stump speeches masked as policy speeches, republicans have started their predictable implosions, and the three networks have hit high gear backing their man, I suspect there is going to be a lot of commentary about taxes and tax policy. The blather is likely to be intolerable grandstanding. Here are some simple truths to keep in mind to cut through the electioneering coming over the next 18 months:
Tax rates matter less than tax revenues. The optimal tax rates are the rates that generate the most tax revenue. The tax rates that generate the most tax revenue are the rates that generate the most economic activity and the highest sustained rate of growth.
The reality is, no one knows what the optimal tax rate is. There is lots of theoretical discussion and spirited debate, but finding the optimal rate is part art, part science. However, we know a few things for certain:
The highest revenue take in US history occurred in 2007 at $ 2.56T. To give a little perspective on tax revenue growth as well as spending growth, 20 years earlier, tax receipts were $ .854T...yet we are in a spiral of debt spending. The top marginal rate in the 3 largest tax revenue years (2005-2007) in history was 35%. Is that cause and effect? Nope. However, one could easily argue that a lower rate could have generated a larger, more sustained economic growth, generating even higher revenues. The dopes who make comments to the effect that "The 2003 tax cuts were tax cuts we couldn't afford" and "were not paid for" are simply denying the truth of history as tax receipts were never higher than during the Bush years. The Bush tax rates generated a flood of tax revenues. The problem was the government spent every last dollar plus about 15 cents for each dollar collected. The Obama crew has upped the debt spending ante to spending $ 1.40 for every dollar we collect in tax revenue. When the wave of the economic cycle turned in 2008 as is always does, tax revenue declined, yet spending went through the roof, hence our $ 14T in debt.
Tax rates should optimize economic activity. Finding and selling the optimal rate is a difficult act. However, it is part of the historical record that the largest takes in tax revenue history were collected with the current marginal rates. If we had not topped our record collections with record spending, we may not be in the ditch we are in today. Tax policy is important for driving economic growth. Spending policy is important to avoid killing it.
Speaking of seasons...we have a full duck season, almost 2 full baseball seasons, and two 4th of July's to go before we cast votes in the next election. That is not a rosey forecaast.
Tax rates matter less than tax revenues. The optimal tax rates are the rates that generate the most tax revenue. The tax rates that generate the most tax revenue are the rates that generate the most economic activity and the highest sustained rate of growth.
The reality is, no one knows what the optimal tax rate is. There is lots of theoretical discussion and spirited debate, but finding the optimal rate is part art, part science. However, we know a few things for certain:
The highest revenue take in US history occurred in 2007 at $ 2.56T. To give a little perspective on tax revenue growth as well as spending growth, 20 years earlier, tax receipts were $ .854T...yet we are in a spiral of debt spending. The top marginal rate in the 3 largest tax revenue years (2005-2007) in history was 35%. Is that cause and effect? Nope. However, one could easily argue that a lower rate could have generated a larger, more sustained economic growth, generating even higher revenues. The dopes who make comments to the effect that "The 2003 tax cuts were tax cuts we couldn't afford" and "were not paid for" are simply denying the truth of history as tax receipts were never higher than during the Bush years. The Bush tax rates generated a flood of tax revenues. The problem was the government spent every last dollar plus about 15 cents for each dollar collected. The Obama crew has upped the debt spending ante to spending $ 1.40 for every dollar we collect in tax revenue. When the wave of the economic cycle turned in 2008 as is always does, tax revenue declined, yet spending went through the roof, hence our $ 14T in debt.
Tax rates should optimize economic activity. Finding and selling the optimal rate is a difficult act. However, it is part of the historical record that the largest takes in tax revenue history were collected with the current marginal rates. If we had not topped our record collections with record spending, we may not be in the ditch we are in today. Tax policy is important for driving economic growth. Spending policy is important to avoid killing it.
Speaking of seasons...we have a full duck season, almost 2 full baseball seasons, and two 4th of July's to go before we cast votes in the next election. That is not a rosey forecaast.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
My All-Time Great Baseball Lineup...
I have always liked to bounce around the idea of my ideal starting line up if I could pick any players from the modern era (call it 1950 to the present)who would be in my starting lineup. Willie Mays is the only easy decision I had putting my "all-time" lineup togther, the rest were pretty tough and many great players did not make the list. BTW, cheaters like Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, and Roger Clemens are not eligible, neither is Ricky Henderson because he always seemed like such a pain in the rump - the Ty Cobb of his time. Here we go...
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Jackie Robonson
SS - Ozzie Smith
3B - Brooks Robinson
C - Johnny Bench
LF - Mickey Mantle
CF - Willie Mays
RF - Ken Griffey, Jr
Some of the decisions are made with the thought of putting a line up together and rating defensive skill as an important decision criteria. It would have been easy to pick Mike Schmidt at the third base, but while a great fielder, Brooks Robinson was better and seemed a better bat control hitter versus having another "bopper" in the lineup. Similar thoughts with SS where clearly Cal Ripken and A-Rod make sense, but no one was a better fielder than Ozzie and he provides additional speed to this line up.
Batting Order....maybe
2B - Jackie Robinson
3B - Brooks Robinson
LF - Mickey Mantle
CF - Willie Mays
1B - Albert Pujols
RF - Ken Griffey, Jr
C - Johnny Bench
SS - Ozzie Smith
Starting Rotation:
Sandy Koufax
Bob Gibson
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Juan Marichal
The reality is that you could come up with a second line up just as good as this one. Just off the top of my head, an outfield of Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, and Roberto Clemente would be pretty impressive. An infield of Jeff Bagwell at first (maybe Willie McCovey instead) Joe Morgan at second, Cal Ripken at short, Mike Schmidt at third, and Yogi Berra or Roy Campanella behind the plate makes a formidable lineup.
Baseball is a game of history and statistics. It is what makes it a great game, maybe the greatest game.
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Jackie Robonson
SS - Ozzie Smith
3B - Brooks Robinson
C - Johnny Bench
LF - Mickey Mantle
CF - Willie Mays
RF - Ken Griffey, Jr
Some of the decisions are made with the thought of putting a line up together and rating defensive skill as an important decision criteria. It would have been easy to pick Mike Schmidt at the third base, but while a great fielder, Brooks Robinson was better and seemed a better bat control hitter versus having another "bopper" in the lineup. Similar thoughts with SS where clearly Cal Ripken and A-Rod make sense, but no one was a better fielder than Ozzie and he provides additional speed to this line up.
Batting Order....maybe
2B - Jackie Robinson
3B - Brooks Robinson
LF - Mickey Mantle
CF - Willie Mays
1B - Albert Pujols
RF - Ken Griffey, Jr
C - Johnny Bench
SS - Ozzie Smith
Starting Rotation:
Sandy Koufax
Bob Gibson
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Juan Marichal
The reality is that you could come up with a second line up just as good as this one. Just off the top of my head, an outfield of Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, and Roberto Clemente would be pretty impressive. An infield of Jeff Bagwell at first (maybe Willie McCovey instead) Joe Morgan at second, Cal Ripken at short, Mike Schmidt at third, and Yogi Berra or Roy Campanella behind the plate makes a formidable lineup.
Baseball is a game of history and statistics. It is what makes it a great game, maybe the greatest game.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
"At Least It's Clean Dirt" - Mother's Day Tribute to "Boy Moms"
I am convinced that when God makes moms, He has a plan. He knows whether He is creating a "girl mom", a "boy mom", or an "mixed mom". All moms are special people. I am married to a quintessential girl mom which has been a delightful and perpetual learning experience for me. My mom is the mother of three boys. She is, and continues to be, the epitome of a "boy mom", a great "boy mom", and in my opinion the best "boy mom".
"Boy moms" have a special patience, a special understanding, and a special outlook on life. I am not saying it is better than the other kinds of moms, its just a little different when you are the mom in a house full of boys. Things get broken, things get lost, mud and dirt become a routine part of life. Let me explain...
Boys are rarely great communicators, especially when we reach the completely awkward and taciturn adolescent years. One of the first signs that a mom is a "boy mom" starts with complete comfort in being called just that..."mom". Not "mommy" or "mother", but "mom". Mom is the perfect name for boys to call their mother. It is easy for us to say and it can sometimes be grunted as much as spoken. However most important of all, when boys have lost something we really need right away, like a baseball glove or car keys, we scream "MOOOOOMMMM!!!!" at the top our lungs. My mom almost always knew where my glove was, where my shoes were, or where I had left my car keys. The problem was solved, the panic ended, the crisis over. "Boy moms" are great problem solvers...especially for boys' unique, self inflicted problems, that boy moms know really aren't problems at all.
"Boy moms" are the world's best sports fans, whether they like sports or not. They attend an endless number of sporting events on weekends, during the week, night or day. My mom spent countless hours sitting on hard, cold steel bleachers, watching her boys play football and baseball. Cheering when we did well, and still cheering when we didn't.
Probably above all other attributes, "boy moms" know how to roll with the punches and make the best of the ridiculous situations that only boys create.
Occasionally my brothers and I would get to spend the night with our grandparents.(Until I had kids of my own, I didn't realize that this meant my parents had plans for the night and were looking forward to well earned a break from their boys.) My maternal grandmother was a classic southern, christian lady. She made the best homemade applesauce I have ever had, she was an avid fan of Lawrence Welk, and she was a stickler for good manners. She was a great influence on my brothers and me. However, she was not a "boy mom" and my mom knew she was not a "boy mom". Whenever we went to my grandparents house, it was important that my mom drop off boys who were presentable.
I recall one summer day when we were going to spend the night with my grandparents. I think we had specific instructions that day that we were spending the night at "Grandmom's" so don't get too dirty. ("Boy moms" know that instructions to stay clean are acts of folly, so a request for only moderate filth is reasonable) So, my older brother and I spent the day in the woods behind our house digging random holes in the mud, building forts that immediately collapsed, and essentially wallowing in dirt. When we came in, my mom knew she was going to have a tough time making us presentable for my grandparents. After we bathed we were still filthy. I recall my mom getting a brush and soap holding our arms over the bathroom sink, scrubbing us for what seemed like hours. Futile hours at that, as the Virginia red clay ground into our arms, hands and fingernails would not yield. Realizing that the fight was over, that this was one of those times she was just going to have to roll with it, my mom turned off the water, toweled us off and said "well, at least its clean dirt"
I think that is what makes "boy moms" special...at least it's clean dirt. She knew that we were going to show up at our grandparent's house with head to toe mud stains, she knew that she would likely get a call about it after our stay, and she also knew that it was all okay...this is what boys do, and she loved us for it.
It was great growing up with the world's best "boy mom". Thanks mom! Happy Mother's Day! We love you!
"Boy moms" have a special patience, a special understanding, and a special outlook on life. I am not saying it is better than the other kinds of moms, its just a little different when you are the mom in a house full of boys. Things get broken, things get lost, mud and dirt become a routine part of life. Let me explain...
Boys are rarely great communicators, especially when we reach the completely awkward and taciturn adolescent years. One of the first signs that a mom is a "boy mom" starts with complete comfort in being called just that..."mom". Not "mommy" or "mother", but "mom". Mom is the perfect name for boys to call their mother. It is easy for us to say and it can sometimes be grunted as much as spoken. However most important of all, when boys have lost something we really need right away, like a baseball glove or car keys, we scream "MOOOOOMMMM!!!!" at the top our lungs. My mom almost always knew where my glove was, where my shoes were, or where I had left my car keys. The problem was solved, the panic ended, the crisis over. "Boy moms" are great problem solvers...especially for boys' unique, self inflicted problems, that boy moms know really aren't problems at all.
"Boy moms" are the world's best sports fans, whether they like sports or not. They attend an endless number of sporting events on weekends, during the week, night or day. My mom spent countless hours sitting on hard, cold steel bleachers, watching her boys play football and baseball. Cheering when we did well, and still cheering when we didn't.
Probably above all other attributes, "boy moms" know how to roll with the punches and make the best of the ridiculous situations that only boys create.
Occasionally my brothers and I would get to spend the night with our grandparents.(Until I had kids of my own, I didn't realize that this meant my parents had plans for the night and were looking forward to well earned a break from their boys.) My maternal grandmother was a classic southern, christian lady. She made the best homemade applesauce I have ever had, she was an avid fan of Lawrence Welk, and she was a stickler for good manners. She was a great influence on my brothers and me. However, she was not a "boy mom" and my mom knew she was not a "boy mom". Whenever we went to my grandparents house, it was important that my mom drop off boys who were presentable.
I recall one summer day when we were going to spend the night with my grandparents. I think we had specific instructions that day that we were spending the night at "Grandmom's" so don't get too dirty. ("Boy moms" know that instructions to stay clean are acts of folly, so a request for only moderate filth is reasonable) So, my older brother and I spent the day in the woods behind our house digging random holes in the mud, building forts that immediately collapsed, and essentially wallowing in dirt. When we came in, my mom knew she was going to have a tough time making us presentable for my grandparents. After we bathed we were still filthy. I recall my mom getting a brush and soap holding our arms over the bathroom sink, scrubbing us for what seemed like hours. Futile hours at that, as the Virginia red clay ground into our arms, hands and fingernails would not yield. Realizing that the fight was over, that this was one of those times she was just going to have to roll with it, my mom turned off the water, toweled us off and said "well, at least its clean dirt"
I think that is what makes "boy moms" special...at least it's clean dirt. She knew that we were going to show up at our grandparent's house with head to toe mud stains, she knew that she would likely get a call about it after our stay, and she also knew that it was all okay...this is what boys do, and she loved us for it.
It was great growing up with the world's best "boy mom". Thanks mom! Happy Mother's Day! We love you!
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