Sunday, June 28, 2009

The Open Hand vs. The Clinched Fist

President Obama's communications skills can't trump the theocratic leadership of the Iran. It is odd to me that Obama thinks of himself as so skilled or so effective in his ability to transcend years of hate, distrust, and cowardice that he feels he can win over the leadership of Iran with speeches and overtures of goodwill...that his open hand of negotiation and even friendship will somehow turn the tide of the fanatical Muslim world. How absurd. Does Obama understand with whom he is attempting to deal?

Maybe Obama should recognize that while his hand is extended and open the hand of the Iranian government would direct their agents in Al Qaeda or Hamas to saw off the head of every western "infidel" if they could and post the video of their vile actions on the Internet. Can Obama be so naive or so obtuse? These people hate him (though they may find his weakness quite useful) just as much as they hate any American. They would kill all of us, Obama included, if they could. These are people we want to reach out to with an open hand? To what end? How does one have a rational conversation with someone who would like to cut your head off? Why would you waste your time? Is this all for show? Is this part of the inner Obama hippie, make love not war, parading itself as foreign policy?

Maybe Obama will start to figure this out sooner rather than later. Ahmadinejad has already hurled a pretty big insult at Obama, charging him with being no different than George W Bush as he batted the Obama Cairo speech back over the net...I am sure that comparison with "W" is considered the lowest of low blows by the Obama people, but get used to it, the Iranians are just getting started.

This naive and unrealistic view of the world and how it works is why the president of the United States needs to have had a job before he or she takes office. This is why community organizers do not rise to great levels of success in business. The lens of community organizing apparently fogged by the haze of "Kumbya" and hubris - which is a dangerous mix when leading the only super power in the world. The world is nothing like the southside of Chicago. Skills developed organizing unemployed steel workers don't translate particularly well in dealing with soon-to-be- nuclear countries who would like nothing more than to detonate a bomb in an American population center.

Feeling good about that open hand? I hope Obama's other hand is drawn back ready to punch Ahmadinejad in the face, but I suspect it is holding a bunch of freshly picked wild flowers or it might have some more money for his friends at the UAW.

Climate Change Bill...I think not

Reuters breathless headline "House Passes Landmark Climate Change Bill" would be laughable were it not so dangerous. The headline should read "House Passes Economic Suicide Bill". Let's look at the reality of this idiotic legislation:

There is inconclusive evidence that 1) the earth is warming 2) man's activity impacts earth's warming or cooling. The data from the past 5 years shows that the earth and its oceans have actually cooled. This blip in time data is every bit as insignificant as the last cooling data from the 1970s and the warming data from the 1990s. The Earth marginally warms and cools. Got it. Let's go grill some burgers and and move on to issues that actually matter.

So the reality is that congress is addressing a problem that may or may not exist, that may or may not be caused by man's activities. Just to continue the illumination of the absurdity of of this "landmark" bill, let's assume that the problem exists and is caused by human activity. The effects of the activity of the United States is a small percentage of all human activity. The impact of this bill on the reduction of CO2 based emissions is a fractional impact of the United States' fractional contribution to the problem. Hence, the benefit will be a fraction of a small fraction and of no value whatsoever.

The economic impact however, will be an enormous boon to our economic competitors and an anchor around the neck of the United States economy. Energy is the foundation of any economy. This climate change bill will drive the cost of US energy through the roof. At the same time China and India will have unfettered access to the best, most reliable, and least expensive energy known to man. Therefore the United States will self impose an tremendous economic handicap upon itself....all in the name of solving a problem that may or may not exist with legislation that does not impact the "global" nature of the supposed problem.

This may be the stupidest idea ever to come out of Washington...and that is a low bar to get under. The only way the United States should inflict a cap and trade system upon itself is if India, China, Russia, and the entire European Union enact an identical system upon themselves as well. Otherwise the United States is the tree that falls inconsequentially in the forest and no one hears it, hence it is unnoticed, undetectable, and inconsequential in addressing the faux problem at hand.

I am not a big conspiracy guy, but this bill fails every test of sensible reason that there has to be something else going on. The bill will not have any impact on the global climate. The bill will levy a massive tax on the entire population of the United States. Finally, the bill will make the United States far less competitive in the global economy. Like water that seeks its lowest point, capital always seeks its highest return. Where do you think the highest returns for capital will be if the United States enacts this bill? Guess what, it will not be here and capital will migrate in massive quantities to countries whose leadership does not put an pistol to the heads of its economy and pull the trigger.

I know the day that president Obama signs this bill into law, which hopefully never happens, is the day all of my investments move into Asia, where capital is free to earn returns unfettered by the stupidity and/or subversive plans of US politicians.